Monday 2 April 2012

When 1st of month falls on weekend in a bull market

Today is the first trading day of the month.  It has been documented previously here, a historic trading bias on the 1st of the month.  Below is an equity curve of a strategy that goes long 1 es  contract when the 1st of the month fell on a weekend and in a bull market (my proprietary definition) and exits at the end of the day.



As you can see there has historically been a bullish bias.  73% of trades closed above the open, which was 1407.25 at the open on Sunday evening (now trading at 1402), so potentially some decent upside in today’s session based on this study.  Please trade at your own risk.

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