Tuesday 28 February 2012

When ES closes at 50 day highs after gapping down below previous days low

Yesterday we closed at the highest close for 200 days.  What was unusual was that we gapped down below the low of the previous day and reversed to close at the highs. 
Below is an equity curve of a strategy that goes short 1 contract of ES at the close of session, when we close at 50 day highs (ive used 50 day to increase sample size) and we gapped below the previous days low.  The strategy exits at my 1st short target, currently 1364.25 or at end of day, over the last 12 years. 
As you can see this is a rare setup and 10/11 times the next day ES has always traded down to the short target.  Note small sample size.

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