Monday 21 February 2011

Just like the 1970's?

In the 70's we saw low economic growth, high unemployment with surging prices (stagflation) and an oil crisis. Today we have the same stagflation developing in western economies and a potential oil crisis in the middle east.....it seems like we've been here before. 

From a chart perspective I would like to share a fractal I have been following for the past few years.  There are huge similarities between the 1974 bottom and today's market, as seen in the below monthly SPX chart.



Here we see the 1974 bottom.  We declined by approx 50% in the 1973 -74 bear market.  We then rallied sharply for a few years, in a 3 wave move, retracing approx 75% of the previous decline. 

Sound familiar.

Below is a chart of the recent bear market.  There are similarities in both time and price.  In the 2007-2009 bear we decline over 50% and we have now retraced, in a 3 wave move, approx 75% of the previous decline. 



Where we go from here nobody knows, but I hope these charts are of some interest.

"History does not repeat itself, but it often rhymes". Mark Twain

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