End of Q1. Just like 1987

The S&P cash index rallied from 1258.86 to 1408.47 in the first quarter of 2012, or over 11%.  An impressive performance, with many in the financial media comparing the current market structure as similar to gains in Q1 of 1987.

As a reminder of 1987, something to ponder over the weekend.

This is in no way a prediction, just some perspective on how things can change pretty quick. 

Bob Prechter. "I got bearish too early, but eventually the piper gets paid"

Latest view from Bob Prechter.  Bob, in my opinion, is one of the most knowledgeable guys on the planet with regard to markets.  No surprise, he is bearish.

From March 24th 2012.

The Predictability of Unpredictability. Taleb

This is excellent.  Something to ponder over the weekend.

From Jan 2012

Money printing's unintended consequences

Some excellent analysis from Mark Faber. 

This was recorded on 17/3/2012.

$spx closes at 200 days highs on 20 day low range

On Friday the S& P 500 futures contract ES closed at another 200 day high. The range was 4.41 for the cash market, $spx, which was also the lowest 200 day range. The instances of this happening are very small, 8 over the last 15 years. To increase the sample size, below is a equity curve of strategy that goes short 1 of es when it closes at a 20 day high with a 20 day lowest range. The strategy exits at the short target, currently 1393, or at end of day.

28/40 or 70% of the trades are profitable, so looks to be a decent edge to be aware of.

$70 billion in gold

Ever wondered what $70 billion of gold looked like.

http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000077579

From a vault in London, the $gld fund.

ES UP gaps on NFP day

Today is NFP day and the ES emini is currently trading up 2 pts.  Below is the equity curve of a strategy that goes short 1 contract of ES on any up gap on NFP day and exits at gap fill or end of day. 

78% winners, slightly above average. 

When the preceding days left an unfilled up gap the figures improved slightly with 8/9 filling by EOD (note small sample size). 

Please trade at your own risk.  Good luck

2 consecutive unfilled down gaps

We are currently trading down 11 es points.  For the past 2 sessions we have left 2 unfilled down gaps.

This is a surprisingly rare pattern, which has happened only 11 times over the past 10 years.  On all 11 occasions the down gaps closed above the open.

Trade at your own risk.  Good luck.