$spx close at 50 day highs and 20 consecutive closes above 20 day ema

Yesterday we closed above the previous days 50 day high and following the theme from yesterday blog we have closed above the 20 day ema for more than 20 consecutive occasions.  This is actually the 33^rd consecutive session, but I have used 20 in this study to increase the sample size).

Below are some stats of a strategy that goes short 1 contract of es, on the above conditions targeting my first short target, currently 1341 or exit at the end of the day.

77% profitable

1.7 profit  factor

73 trades

$189 avg drawdown.

Further, below is an equity curve of the same strategy except it exits at the end of 5 days.  This shows the short target was has been hit on every occasion, the max drawdown was never greater than 3 daily average ranges.

So historically, this would suggest that there is a good expectancy ES will trade down to 1341 at some point in the next 5 days.