tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-83578408121918078282024-02-19T17:29:28.662-08:00eminiglobexeminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.comBlogger66125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-52182917978734224162014-10-06T01:44:00.001-07:002014-10-06T01:44:38.391-07:00Gold contrarian indicator<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With Gold approaching multi year lows, these sort of headlines are normally seen around swing bottoms.</span> <br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieT_WThdyhKyn7JlNChKUd1uFtO8L7YwcUqFPOmddiaoOuQZL0E_3z7lreb5p9Xr25Hbw2DYXl6VRagts2xThZkH8ljKTHxIKvWYzuPZoXKup1ljzVbH8MrYU2qRTlH8ZdG_7ZhCE8FSc/s1600/Capture.GIF" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEieT_WThdyhKyn7JlNChKUd1uFtO8L7YwcUqFPOmddiaoOuQZL0E_3z7lreb5p9Xr25Hbw2DYXl6VRagts2xThZkH8ljKTHxIKvWYzuPZoXKup1ljzVbH8MrYU2qRTlH8ZdG_7ZhCE8FSc/s1600/Capture.GIF" height="176" width="320" /></a></div>
eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-47972776028243118642014-05-08T14:41:00.003-07:002014-05-08T14:41:53.105-07:00Ray Dalio "wisdom"<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some quotes from Ray Dalio of Bridgewater Associates</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><object width="320" height="266" class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="https://ytimg.googleusercontent.com/vi/8zj_QOFmHGs/0.jpg"><param name="movie" value="https://youtube.googleapis.com/v/8zj_QOFmHGs&source=uds" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><param name="allowFullScreen" value="true" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="https://youtube.googleapis.com/v/8zj_QOFmHGs&source=uds" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowfullscreen="true"></embed></object></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Nice video courtesy of trading wisdoms.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-79728325113738116682014-05-06T12:15:00.001-07:002014-05-06T12:15:51.194-07:004 years on - May 6th<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Anyone else remember what they were doing around this time 4 years ago.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A reminder that things can change pretty quick.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-41369197233349128692014-04-30T14:05:00.002-07:002014-04-30T14:12:04.382-07:00NY Fed POMO<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So the FED today tapered by another 10 million. Below is the May POMO schedule.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHie2NIgCg2PoEQ7xB5QzTg8hoGW8JtmPmUW6MHkQvDO7eIbX886_mLTmQJc6aFESPYr4hAjm7xoGk7iGLDTP2PCb6ANnJYVC2D-6kzPDi5tATCrH_Fp7lccNDkWmRKMk8oFBuAlpIi0s/s1600/pomo.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjHie2NIgCg2PoEQ7xB5QzTg8hoGW8JtmPmUW6MHkQvDO7eIbX886_mLTmQJc6aFESPYr4hAjm7xoGk7iGLDTP2PCb6ANnJYVC2D-6kzPDi5tATCrH_Fp7lccNDkWmRKMk8oFBuAlpIi0s/s1600/pomo.JPG" height="400" width="345" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For more info please see </span><a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/tot_operation_schedule.html</span></a></div>
eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-19690733997676484432014-01-17T14:23:00.002-08:002014-01-17T14:27:35.502-08:00Ray Dalio - Economic Machine<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This video offers brilliant insight into Ray Dalio's interpretation of how the economy works, and more importantly, where we are in the current cycle.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Highly recommended for a fundamental view of where we are. A beautiful deleveraging??</span> eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-69077300365425620482014-01-16T12:18:00.001-08:002014-01-16T12:18:33.621-08:00George Soros latest - Reflexivity<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some new insight from George Soros on reflexivity, fallibility and uncertainty.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">He says ...................</span><br />
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<em><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"Of course I did not discover reflexivity. Earlier observers recognized it, or at least aspects of it, often under a different name. Knight explored the difference between risk and uncertainty. Keynes compared financial markets to a beauty contest where the participants had to guess who would be the most popular choice. The sociologist Merton about self-fulfilling prophecies, unintended consequences, and the bandwagon effect. Popper spoke of the ‘Oedipus effect’ in the Poverty of Historicism.</span></em><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A fascinating read. For the full article please see this <a href="http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1350178X.2013.859415" target="_blank">link</a>.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-58356475756872388342014-01-15T11:44:00.000-08:002014-01-15T11:44:28.302-08:002013 Trade Review<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2013 was another successful year for the eminiglobex trading system. Here is a screenshot of the equity curve from collective2.com. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuTdv97ycsVApXygHekW-TJID3PnMPV8m1XB1TIq3tIj87rfTDIdqXMGmzPMoz0-yQ_zEwG3bicH41wmhyphenhyphenvHf1tzWn-E49Vz1VZz8hgDUpBe5h1vse7hf0q0Cnjjszm51O6Sy4KfswPIY/s1600/emg.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiuTdv97ycsVApXygHekW-TJID3PnMPV8m1XB1TIq3tIj87rfTDIdqXMGmzPMoz0-yQ_zEwG3bicH41wmhyphenhyphenvHf1tzWn-E49Vz1VZz8hgDUpBe5h1vse7hf0q0Cnjjszm51O6Sy4KfswPIY/s1600/emg.JPG" height="216" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Due to unusual market action, the system has been trading very tight, with 12 trades. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Details of the trades can be seen below.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiaBJMpFrEtNmw5yNkRdi4qMin_7VwepDINF4hWbxebRFePPxX0nJogR6OAliUCY3DNesxMNUea1yH8o-bPLxNcxYmGYuE1j0MNS381RUKu8T3a3aNLKLtnow_pkzoT0pfwuJo4nQYHII/s1600/emgtradelist.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjiaBJMpFrEtNmw5yNkRdi4qMin_7VwepDINF4hWbxebRFePPxX0nJogR6OAliUCY3DNesxMNUea1yH8o-bPLxNcxYmGYuE1j0MNS381RUKu8T3a3aNLKLtnow_pkzoT0pfwuJo4nQYHII/s1600/emgtradelist.JPG" height="304" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The system returned $1,227 in profit (trading 1 contract) after commission and slippage and did not have a losing trade. </span><br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The system is currently trading over 200 live contracts per trade. </span><br />
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<span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The system is currently at equity highs and is on a run of 36 consecutive winning trades. </span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-60341367271552449492013-06-20T13:41:00.000-07:002013-06-20T13:41:02.477-07:00"we were a little puzzled by that"<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Fast forward to 17:50mins, for what may be<em> the</em> moment risk markets lost confidence in the feds ability to monitise away the debt pile whilst controlling real interest rates.</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$spx has sold off over 60 points in just over 24hrs.</span></div>
eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-55520297248123429092013-01-10T03:37:00.000-08:002013-01-10T03:39:41.387-08:002012 trade review.<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;">2012 was another
successful year for the eminiglobex trading system. Below is the equity curve
from the collective2 website.</span></span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1iQwQt3CNOICKKP8tnRyqB5OnzFP13kWoyonpRiAxL29tdmBVsz-aSJ0xyYZMUlDHvfMys1MEqhXi3bLCOzy3PigyDIjLytfgcqiS8O2ZQamxFoEzlH_kY7JnYFTXNzUzWOHgU0VKVfM/s1600/2012.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj1iQwQt3CNOICKKP8tnRyqB5OnzFP13kWoyonpRiAxL29tdmBVsz-aSJ0xyYZMUlDHvfMys1MEqhXi3bLCOzy3PigyDIjLytfgcqiS8O2ZQamxFoEzlH_kY7JnYFTXNzUzWOHgU0VKVfM/s320/2012.JPG" height="203" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span><span style="font-family: Arial;">The system returned $3,617 in profit (trading 1 contract)
after commission and slippage and did not have a losing month.</span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;">The system took 36 trades, 19
longs and 17 shorts. 33/36 or 91% were winning trades. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;">The average drawdown for
each trade was 0.75%. The max drawdown was 2.85%. </span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;"></span></span><br />
<span lang="EN-GB"><span style="font-family: Arial;">The system is currently at equity highs and is on a
run of 24 consecutive winning trades.</span><o:p></o:p>
</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-52582667478140159482013-01-04T02:53:00.000-08:002013-01-04T02:53:24.576-08:00Update on NFP day in bull market<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This <a href="http://eminiglobex.blogspot.co.uk/2011/02/nfp-day-in-bull-market.html">blog post </a>from Feb 2011 detailed the bullish bias of NFP days in a bull market. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The same strategy is updated below.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyiJHcZ2h-CVqXdiP_vZLcAXBBZG55Dz0zludVyBRswYM9OU-ys9jVFR8gzQEvuv_RhjR6nJVd1lilbl4uW9ywcbK59DaZEErUpvrEMXfKXYLF7Ndfo8wxcWeqPK44z_Y7NWIdTXt11z8/s1600/nfpupdate.JPG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="169" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjyiJHcZ2h-CVqXdiP_vZLcAXBBZG55Dz0zludVyBRswYM9OU-ys9jVFR8gzQEvuv_RhjR6nJVd1lilbl4uW9ywcbK59DaZEErUpvrEMXfKXYLF7Ndfo8wxcWeqPK44z_Y7NWIdTXt11z8/s320/nfpupdate.JPG" width="320" /></a></div>
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<span id="goog_1850605612"></span><span id="goog_1850605613"></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As you can see, this bias has taken a breather over the last 18 months.</span><br />
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<br />eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-53083511471363987582012-10-25T13:44:00.003-07:002012-10-25T13:45:13.724-07:00AAPL update - Earnings release<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$AAPL just released their q3 earnings with a miss. The stock is currently halted, but judging by the nasdaq futures, currently - 40, it will open at or around the short target. If I were short appl based on the info in the <a href="http://eminiglobex.blogspot.co.uk/2012/10/aapl-update.html">previous posts</a> i would cover right here, as soon as trading resumes. </span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeu90Jt1jzU4MF16IrOj6NUKM7AIR1Afh4KTolT5P6bKiTKv3xZAj3BacgFjq__ZWF-18P6EuJZBgytQG5r3lbK3PcJnEEPDG11OJHw2blDOzrGuIJVzQ1vkVVjMmcZ12GAf14HBddh5E/s1600/aaploct.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="216" oea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeu90Jt1jzU4MF16IrOj6NUKM7AIR1Afh4KTolT5P6bKiTKv3xZAj3BacgFjq__ZWF-18P6EuJZBgytQG5r3lbK3PcJnEEPDG11OJHw2blDOzrGuIJVzQ1vkVVjMmcZ12GAf14HBddh5E/s320/aaploct.gif" width="320" /></a></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Job done.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-53147999217904730522012-10-19T13:39:00.000-07:002012-10-19T13:49:25.808-07:00$aapl update<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><div style="margin: 4.8pt 9.6pt 0pt;">
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Further to my previous posts on Apple back </span><a href="http://eminiglobex.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/contrarian-apple-indicator.html"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">in August</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> and a </span><a href="http://www.blogger.com/"><span id="goog_443484472"></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">few weeks ago<span id="goog_443484473"></span></span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, the apple stock has closed today at -$22 or -3.5%. The stock is rapidly closing in on the support levels noted in the previous post. As you can see from the chart below, the stock tested and retested the neckline and is now trading down to the support levels.</span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeu90Jt1jzU4MF16IrOj6NUKM7AIR1Afh4KTolT5P6bKiTKv3xZAj3BacgFjq__ZWF-18P6EuJZBgytQG5r3lbK3PcJnEEPDG11OJHw2blDOzrGuIJVzQ1vkVVjMmcZ12GAf14HBddh5E/s1600/aaploct.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="270" nea="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjeu90Jt1jzU4MF16IrOj6NUKM7AIR1Afh4KTolT5P6bKiTKv3xZAj3BacgFjq__ZWF-18P6EuJZBgytQG5r3lbK3PcJnEEPDG11OJHw2blDOzrGuIJVzQ1vkVVjMmcZ12GAf14HBddh5E/s400/aaploct.gif" width="400" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This stock has been in a parabolic move for previous months and has been overdue a correction. To put this correction into context we are currently less than 15% from the highs and still trading above the 200 day moving average, For aapl bulls who are nervously holding here, pullbacks to the 200 daily moving average are normal and indeed healthy. The stock is still in a up trend and it is high probability buyers will come in at the support levels. Disclosure, I have no position in $aapl. </span></div>
eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-70077491354938061782012-10-09T07:59:00.000-07:002012-10-09T07:59:52.223-07:00$aapl Head and Shoulder's<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Further to the </span><a href="http://eminiglobex.blogspot.co.uk/2012/08/contrarian-apple-indicator.html"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">previous post on apple</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, we can now see a classic topping pattern formed on this stock.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZApfeBMH9BGPQFMBksyC36a56vDwXUI5RJxg8rD6wPHprMuWgS-5syOyVFxDpTOOOzHoSB2SIMbJ-xpXKHEn8RuAEvA-r2cai90d_jok9LBTNj3EBAVxPGjs4iUA-U1jejioEJcAZAJs/s1600/aapl.gif" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="227" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhZApfeBMH9BGPQFMBksyC36a56vDwXUI5RJxg8rD6wPHprMuWgS-5syOyVFxDpTOOOzHoSB2SIMbJ-xpXKHEn8RuAEvA-r2cai90d_jok9LBTNj3EBAVxPGjs4iUA-U1jejioEJcAZAJs/s320/aapl.gif" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As you can see this targets around $600. The rising purple line is the 200 simple moving average. The stock has been above this average for roughtly a year, so overdue to pullback.</span><br />
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eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-33960239736130655792012-09-29T12:47:00.000-07:002012-09-29T12:48:55.111-07:00Nassim Nicholas Taleb (Black Swan) video<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Below is a classic video from Taleb. It's over 10 years old, broadcast before the black swan book. He talks about his first book "fooled by randomness", which in my opinion is better than the black swan. Amazing insight and very relevant to today's markets.</span></span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A recommended watch.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-26411810970608970832012-09-21T10:40:00.000-07:002012-09-21T10:40:07.023-07:00More Ray Dalio Video's, Bridgewater Associates<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Following on from the </span><a href="http://eminiglobex.blogspot.co.uk/2012/09/ray-dalio-video-bridgewater-associates.html"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">recent Ray Dalio Video</span></a><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">, below are links from todays CNBC. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On China - </span><a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000117548&play=1"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000117548&play=1</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On QE3 - </span><a href="http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000117549&play=1"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000117549&play=1</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Europe - </span><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000117552&play=1"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000117552&play=1</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Rules on Investing - </span><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000117531&play=1"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000117531&play=1</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On Gold - </span><a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000117541&play=1"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=3000117541&play=1</span></a><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Worth a watch.</span><br />
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eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-16333685160679083692012-09-14T13:19:00.000-07:002012-09-14T13:23:56.101-07:00Ray Dalio video, Bridgewater Associates<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This is well worth a watch, for a excellent <span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">analysis </span>of the fundamentals.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/SFaRazMpxcM?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Such clarity of thought, from one of the most <span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: 'Times New Roman'; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">successful </span>hedge fund managers around.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-84789966722890497032012-08-19T13:43:00.000-07:002012-08-19T13:43:20.792-07:00Contrarian Apple indicator<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">$aapl made another all time high on Friday. The below headline is currently showing on CNBC website.</span><br />
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsbcHkksaNhXvH95oQ5QaVI5iiU1yKW6mx2-SBpZb7X32rLKaXm8MUkO8uVerzMV6YMtkkbLBizNyMSyFMxZQIuO8klgjINzD9HBY2EThPQiIRv4TcpU6wkhJVQT8bo34Umz41lRdNKm0/s1600/aapl2.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><img border="0" height="267" mda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhsbcHkksaNhXvH95oQ5QaVI5iiU1yKW6mx2-SBpZb7X32rLKaXm8MUkO8uVerzMV6YMtkkbLBizNyMSyFMxZQIuO8klgjINzD9HBY2EThPQiIRv4TcpU6wkhJVQT8bo34Umz41lRdNKm0/s320/aapl2.png" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">"why Apple will soar 40% to $900". Putting aside any fundamential views, anyone trading tech stocks in the late 90 will know this sort of hype was typical towards the end of the bull move. This time may be different, but from a contarian investing perspective this sort of headline should worry the $aapl bulls.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-17823588204448460372012-06-25T05:34:00.002-07:002012-06-25T05:34:45.925-07:00Latest from Soros on Euro crisis.<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some good analysis just out from George Soros, re the Euro crisis.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Watch the video <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/video/soros-calls-on-eu-to-start-joint-debt-fund-xSYKX9RWTyWTfWGlyF91TQ.html">here</a>. </span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Over 40 mins long, but worth the watch</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-10786688956197386872012-05-09T05:58:00.002-07:002012-05-09T05:58:47.451-07:00Trading ES down gaps after 15 day low close.<div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;"><span class="024543812-09052012"><div>
<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: small;"><span class="024543812-09052012">The ES emini contract is currently trading down 13 points. Yesterday the $spx closed at a multiday low. Below is a equity curve of a strategy that fades down gaps when the previous day closed at a 15 day low. The strategy exits at gap fill or at end of day.</span></span></div>
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<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW_ApxGWo1SBsNWaiHS502nuLyqPGhoR9Z2SvADZ6QyiTeavy2LL-8dqofoAaSKd3VilsiRe8MaO6QwmPiMGCYiv1Ti_0M5p8P9dC0ikSVxiNk3vcyDpEBl_xNUPAA4NQ8esjQ-JnmCLE/s1600/ec_15daylow.PNG" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><span style="font-size: small;"><img border="0" dba="true" height="189" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjW_ApxGWo1SBsNWaiHS502nuLyqPGhoR9Z2SvADZ6QyiTeavy2LL-8dqofoAaSKd3VilsiRe8MaO6QwmPiMGCYiv1Ti_0M5p8P9dC0ikSVxiNk3vcyDpEBl_xNUPAA4NQ8esjQ-JnmCLE/s320/ec_15daylow.PNG" width="320" /></span></a></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial;"><span class="024543812-09052012"><span style="font-size: small;">As you can see this would suggest a decent historic edge. <span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Again, please note this set-up does not include factors such as seasonality, trend, gap size average drawdown etc, other factors that need to be considered. Please trade at your own risk.</span></span></span></span></div>
</span></span></div>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-23447094499530839582012-04-28T12:44:00.000-07:002012-04-28T12:44:30.048-07:00Pimco's El Erian<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some good analysis from Pimco's El Erian.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.blogger.com/video.g?token=AD6v5dzvNFm-Bv-56poMip5UN5YtZCNyY6f77xJOBPtmyoKAFf4N8DqdddR-fcMxMc-TRz6Lex1AkXh9x521NY73Pw' class='b-hbp-video b-uploaded' frameborder='0'></iframe></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">From Fri April 27th 2012.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-87191169274760877342012-04-20T14:43:00.000-07:002012-04-20T14:43:32.429-07:00ES - This weeks unique price action<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <span style="font-family: Arial;">The ES contract closed for the week at 1375.25, up 10.25 points on the week, with a weekly range of 30.75 points. A normal sounding week, however the daily bars have produced an interesting pattern. Below are the daily bars of the 24hr ES market.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkzYhJFAsy2KRsXYntFnj1-WG5sVDsIxW7-gKZblrlC4vIpWtr2XNlC51cI7RxdibYKgwJCE16JmhBpkEj7U-jkNlrG4g-A5QkFw4-PVbLbQRTh3rLYfj3nziFlH6xmNNFPMlMtGgFwXM/s1600/week.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgkzYhJFAsy2KRsXYntFnj1-WG5sVDsIxW7-gKZblrlC4vIpWtr2XNlC51cI7RxdibYKgwJCE16JmhBpkEj7U-jkNlrG4g-A5QkFw4-PVbLbQRTh3rLYfj3nziFlH6xmNNFPMlMtGgFwXM/s320/week.png" width="279" /></a></div><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial;">Tuesday was a outside bar, wed was an inside bar, thurs was an outside bar and today another inside bar. By my calculations this is the first time this has happened since the ES contract was established in 1997. This may well turn out be be of little significance, but from my experience, when the market does things it hasn't done before (or has rarely done before) that's an important message and a good time to play extra defensive.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial;">All eyes on the Fed next week.</span><br />
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</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-59200890487615678572012-04-16T06:39:00.004-07:002012-04-16T07:10:06.381-07:00Upgaps following an unfilled down gap and unfilled up gap.<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Today we are trading up over 9 points. On Friday there was an unfilled down gap. On Thursday the up gap was also unfilled. Below is an equity curve of a strategy that fades up gaps following such action, 1 contract with the stop at end of day or gap fill.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_AjQjYrp2HUxVfkbRR1BYiGMe5rp9yH3aCKXuVRIWjhnPwHVAaGQ9ePx8GODajVqpFebu0kvmWp3jacmSb2_911M0HZmhaLW8B13Hiac_QMivyj1bnuiw7OqhQIPwBhBthyphenhyphenl_FhT49fE/s1600/gap_mon.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="197" nda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEh_AjQjYrp2HUxVfkbRR1BYiGMe5rp9yH3aCKXuVRIWjhnPwHVAaGQ9ePx8GODajVqpFebu0kvmWp3jacmSb2_911M0HZmhaLW8B13Hiac_QMivyj1bnuiw7OqhQIPwBhBthyphenhyphenl_FhT49fE/s320/gap_mon.png" width="320" /></a></div><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As you can see this has happened 46 time over the last 12 years, with 36 or 84% either filling gap or closing in profit.</span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Again, please note this set-up does not include factors such as seasonality, trend, average drawdown etc, other factors that need to be considered. </span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-84902630656835614362012-04-15T13:45:00.001-07:002012-04-15T13:46:52.674-07:00More from Soros, on Euro and reflexivity.<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Following on from<a href="http://eminiglobex.blogspot.co.uk/2012/04/soros-on-europe.html"> yesterday's video</a> featuring George Soros, below is an hour long speech from Soros on reflexivity and the Euro crisis. A fascinating insight and highly recommended.</span></span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><iframe allowfullscreen='allowfullscreen' webkitallowfullscreen='webkitallowfullscreen' mozallowfullscreen='mozallowfullscreen' width='320' height='266' src='https://www.youtube.com/embed/cdcMZ37lzQo?feature=player_embedded' frameborder='0'></iframe></span></div><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 12pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">From April 2012, New Economic Thinking (INET) Paradigm Lost Conference at the Foreign Ministry in Berlin.</span></span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-38507041497276179662012-04-14T15:43:00.000-07:002012-04-14T15:43:23.984-07:00Soros on Europe<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some excellent insight from George Soros on Euro crisis.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><object width="320" height="266" class="BLOGGER-youtube-video" classid="clsid:D27CDB6E-AE6D-11cf-96B8-444553540000" codebase="http://download.macromedia.com/pub/shockwave/cabs/flash/swflash.cab#version=6,0,40,0" data-thumbnail-src="http://1.gvt0.com/vi/T0_0A1K7dlE/0.jpg"><param name="movie" value="http://www.youtube.com/v/T0_0A1K7dlE&fs=1&source=uds" /><param name="bgcolor" value="#FFFFFF" /><embed width="320" height="266" src="http://www.youtube.com/v/T0_0A1K7dlE&fs=1&source=uds" type="application/x-shockwave-flash"></embed></object></span></div><span style="color: black;"><br />
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<span style="color: black; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Thanks to zerohedge.com for spotting this video. From April 13th, 2012.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8357840812191807828.post-12882619009961783252012-04-13T06:16:00.000-07:002012-04-13T06:16:22.181-07:00Down gaps after strong rally day<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">The ES emini futures are currently set to gap down. Yesterday the $spx and $indu (Dow Jones) rallied hard, with the Dow closing up over 1.4%. Below is an equity curve of a strategy that goes long any down ES gap when the previous day closes up by over 1 average daily range and leaves an open up gap. The strategy exits at end of day or at gap fill.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>Based on 1 contract over the last 12 years.</span><br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLUHMDJtG7liddgB_2mFfFtXneC7DAMD-7DlAuLoj_lhyNJPq6wI6KjZze6OJz1c9X7Kxi36-xQL4qDNSzgsPVODC51sEe4pEw8QlUMsbddKliCv8F2uSMRt4djk2XXSEmLxYsq2ZioEk/s1600/strong++day.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="180" qda="true" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiLUHMDJtG7liddgB_2mFfFtXneC7DAMD-7DlAuLoj_lhyNJPq6wI6KjZze6OJz1c9X7Kxi36-xQL4qDNSzgsPVODC51sEe4pEw8QlUMsbddKliCv8F2uSMRt4djk2XXSEmLxYsq2ZioEk/s320/strong++day.png" width="320" /></a></div><span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt;">84.5% of trades either closed the gap or closed up on the trade, which suggests a decent historic upside edge for today’s session. Please note this set-up does note include factors such as seasonality, trend, average drawdown etc, other factors that need to be considered. </span><br />
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<span style="font-family: Arial; font-size: 11pt; mso-ansi-language: EN-GB; mso-bidi-font-size: 12.0pt; mso-bidi-language: AR-SA; mso-fareast-font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-fareast-language: EN-US;">Please trade at own risk.</span>eminiglobexhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/17378836723852387041noreply@blogger.com0